High Stakes Poker

            Tariffs on imports are taxes. We, the American people, have to pay them. When prices go up on air-conditioners and washing machines because of tariffs, Americans have to pay more for them. When tariffs are imposed on steel and aluminum imports, products made with them cost more. And we have to pay those higher prices as well. Now, if President Trump goes through with his promises to place tariffs on all Chinese imports, we will have to pay more for the higher prices on them.

            Not everybody needs a new air-conditioner or washing machine, or a new car made with imported steel parts. But how about shoes? Some 97 percent of them sold in our stores are imports, two-thirds rom China. Who doesn’t need shoes? The bare fact is that all America is starting to see prices rise as a direct result of tariffs. And they will continue to rise if the president continues his unwise protectionist policies.

            Maybe it’s all a poker game with him. He went all in by calling for a 25% tariff on European cars. Maybe it was a bluff, but it succeeded: Europe blinked, because Germany depends heavily on selling BMWs in America. Maybe tariffs between Europe and America will all be eliminated as they have been between Europe and Japan. If they are, the president will have won that game.

            China will not be so easily bluffed. The Europeans are allies, but the Chinese are not, and they hold a lot of high cards. One is that President Xi does not have to fear being ousted from power. Another is that China owns more than a trillion dollars of our debt. Yet another is that we need China to cooperate on the denuclearization of North Korea. For China, this is not a game: it’s a war over its control of the South China Sea and over its growing influence in South America, Africa, and the Asian sub-continent. It’s a war about who is to be the world’s dominant power.

            President Trump holds a lot of high cards, too. But China will not be bluffed. To paraphrase a familiar song, “There’s a time to hold ‘em, and a time to fold ‘em.” The stakes are high. And the biggest losers may be us.

           

Local Taxes Well Spent

            I’m very fond of our new library. I fervently hope that the children of our county will discover the many treasures that it holds. I’m also fond of another facility paid for by our tax dollars: the Perquimans County Senior Citizen Center. I visited it recently and was amazed at how much it has to offer our older adults.

            The center, located off Harvey Point Road, has 8,000 square feet of space devoted to a wide variety of activities. These include an exercise room, an arts and crafts room, a pool room, a computer center, a lunch room, and a multi-purpose room where I found four tables of seniors playing canasta, pinochle, and another game I didn’t recognize.

            The center serves 70 to 100 seniors daily. Many come for the line dancing, the Tai Chi, the Zumba and Yoga classes, and the low-impact aerobic exercises. If that’s not enough, the seniors can go over to the Recreation Center for a game of bocce, pickle ball, or a 2K walk.

            Most interesting are the entertainment programs, such as music and choir concerts, and informational presentations on topics as diverse as medical care, elder law, nutrition, safety, and even protection from scams targeting seniors.

            Because the county makes a transportation van available to the center, seniors have been able to travel to the Only Place for an evening of entertainment and to the Carolina Moon Theater. They have even taken a trip to Fayetteville for ziplining.

            These and many more activities keep our seniors active and involved. As far as I’m concerned, that’s a very good use of our tax dollars.

The Partisan Deaf in Helsinki

            “A dialog of the deaf” is an apt description of what masquerades as debates between President Trump’s opponents and his supporters. One side wants to drive the president out of office, while the other sees him as doing no wrong.  Neither side wants to give an inch. Why, for instance, can’t Democrats and their mainstream media echoes give Trump credit for the robust economy?  Why can’t his core supporters admit his trade policies are a disaster? Just recently, reactions to Trump’s summit with Putin provided us with more extreme examples of the partisan divide.

            I do not believe that Trump’s unfortunate remarks in Helsinki qualify as craven capitulation to an adversary or collusion with Putin, as some have charged. The president certainly did not merit the hysteria spewing out of the mainstream media, calling the president a dumpy stooge, the greatest threat to our democracy, and a traitor. Do the leftwing crazies actually see nothing wrong with an MSNBC commentator comparing Helsinki to Pearl Harbor and Kristallnacht?

            There was criticism from Republicans, as well, especially from John McCain. In fact, blowback from the right was so swift and severe, it stunned the president enough to force him to correct his “misstatement.” On the other hand, blind supporters like Sean Hannity praised the president, and, as usual, could find nothing to criticize in his management of foreign policy and his diplomatic relations with his enemies or his allies. To them, Helsinki—minus that little press conference blip—was a success in personal diplomacy.

            Let’s face it. The reason we are having yet another example of extreme reactions to Trump is Trump himself and his over-confidence in his ability as a negotiator to brow-beat his allies and butter up his enemies. It didn’t work very well at the G5 or NATO meetings, and it achieved little in Singapore and Helsinki.

            What’s next? An invitation to Putin to come to Washington for Round Two? What we don’t need is more impulsive diplomacy to supply the partisan deaf with more ammunition for their political wars.

                

A New Republican Mascot

            Now I know why the Republican emblem is an elephant. Or should I say a flying Dumbo. President Trump is jetting all over the world trumpeting his impassioned views on nuclear security, trade imbalances, and NATO obligations, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo dutifully follows behind like a circus worker with a pail and shovel picking up Trump’s undiplomatic excretions.

            In his first year and a half in office, the President has had an extraordinary string of successes: tax reform, regulations cutback, judicial appointments, the environment, energy, and defense. I could go on. The point is that President Trump has accomplished more in a short time than anyone could have expected. But now his policies on trade are threatening to reverse all the progress he has made.

            When it comes to trade economics, President Trump is an ignoramus surrounded by dunces like Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross. The problem is that Trump sees any trade deficit as a sign that America is being taken advantage of. So first, he scuttles a healthy trade agreement (TPP) with Asian partners, then he antagonizes Canada and Mexico on NAFTA, and now he is embarking on a trade war not only with China, but with our European allies, believing that he can achieve better trade agreements simply because other countries need American markets more than we need theirs. He refuses to consider that this is a war in which everybody loses, starting with the American buying public.

            President Trump insists on fair trade as well as free trade. Fine. But there is a better way to achieve it than through rhetorical excesses and destructive tariffs. China’s unfair trade tactics and theft of intellectual property need to be addressed, to be sure, and European tariffs on American goods need to be reduced. But not by upping tariffs, and certainly not by invoking executive authority to do so on the absurd premise that the importation of German automobiles is a matter of national security.

            The president needs better advisers on economic policy. Or Mike Pompeo sooner or later is going to decide that he’s no longer willing to fill his pail with Dumbo’s droppings.

Rolled

            It seems that not a day goes by anymore that some critical issue doesn’t make headlines in Washington. It’s hard to keep track of what crisis dominated the news yesterday, never mind last week or last month. A case in point is North Korea.

            When President Trump returned from his meeting with Kim Jong Un, he pronounced the nuclear crisis over. Trump had used his unparalleled persuasive powers to get Kim to commit to North Korea’s complete denuclearization. It was a triumph of Trumpian diplomacy. No more needed to be said. It was a done deal and time to move on to the next challenge. Except it doesn’t appear to be working out that way.

            When a friend had asked me what I thought about the Singapore Summit, I replied that I thought Trump had gotten rolled. He had nothing but nice things to say about Kim, confident that the North Korean dictator would keep his word. His word was enough for Trump to show his faith in Kim by ordering, to the consternation of his military advisers, the postponement of joint military exercises with South Korea. No need to worry, said the President. “North Korea is no longer a threat.”

            Energized by his East Asian success, Trump ordered his foreign policy team to arrange a summit with Vladimir Putin. Putin is a reasonable man: he will fold his cards, just like Kim. Except that Kim is not folding his cards.

            On June 28^th, The Wall Street Journal reported that satellite images had revealed that North Korea had begun to upgrade a nuclear site, in direct contradiction to Kim’s assurances that he would proceed immediately to end his nuclear program. Should anyone be surprised?

            Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was dispatched to Pyongyang to set matters straight, but he returned with the bitter taste of reality about North Korean trustworthiness.

            Kim Jong Un is doing exactly what his father and grandfather had done before him: he is reneging on his promises and is not about to give up his nuclear weapons. Mr. President, admit it: you got rolled.