Ominous Signs

            As this contentious year nears its end, people naturally look forward to the next with a little more optimism. Not me. I'm not a pessimist by nature, but I look forward to next year with trepidation. I hope I'm wrong, but I think 2012 will be a year of worldwide catastrophe. I have long felt that if World War III becomes a reality, it will break out in the Middle East. Now I feel that it is almost inevitable. Let's look at the signs.

            What was at first called the Arab Spring has turned into the Arab Winter. Muslim extremists are in the ascendancy all across North Africa and the Middle East. Dictators and tyrants who managed to maintain some form of stability in their countries are falling one by one: Ben Ali, Mubarack, Qadaffi, Saleh, and, very soon, Assad. Royal families in Morocco, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia may not be far behind.

            Armed and inspired by Iran, Islamists are flexing their muscles everywhere: suicide bombers in Iraq, renewed missile attacks from Gaza, revolt against the army in Egypt, an attempted assassination of the Saudi ambassador on our soil, and, most recently, a government-sponsored attack on the British embassy in Tehran. I see these as signs that  the Muslim world is uniting to challenge the West with a brazenness that could very quickly turn into a broad and righteous conflict.

            Also troubling was Pakistan's response to the death of 24 of its soldiers caused by Nato bombs. Although there is some evidence that Pakistan may have been partly at fault for this tragedy, it ordered a blockade of Nato supplies into Afghanistan and permitted a huge demonstration that burned the American flag and Obama's effigy, hardly actions of a trusted ally.

            Which brings up a very important point. The Muslim world is encouraged by the weakness of the West. Europe, which is very dependent on Middle East oil, cannot afford to antagonize any more of its suppliers, especially now that the European Union is on the verge of financial collapse.

            Here at home, President Obama's policy of engagement with Iran has proven to be no more effective than Chamberlain's appeasement of the Nazis in Munich. On the contrary, it has encouraged Iran to proceed apace with the development of nuclear weapons in the full confidence that it has nothing to fear from the United States as long as Obama is president.

            Lastly, Obama's inability to distinguish between friends and allies in the Middle East provides further confirmation to Tehran that the United States will not back Israel should that country take preemptive action to defend itself.

            At some point in 2012 I fear that Israel will indeed provide the spark that ignites a global conflict. From there you can create your own nightmarish scenario.