Random Numbers

            Numbers are meant to grab your attention. Here are a few that grabbed mine.

            With 20% of its population over 70 years of age and a life expectancy of 87 years for women and 81 for men, Japan has a big problem: there aren’t enough young workers to sustain the country’s welfare and health services. To make things worse, the current birth rate in Japan is 1.43 births for women between the ages of 15 and 44, when a rate of 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population. This has resulted in 2018 in the biggest population decline on record.

            In the U.S. the fertility rate is 1.729. Yet, the population is growing. The difference? We welcome immigrants, while Japan traditionally has opposed immigration. Japan’s leaders now realize this must change. But it may be too late to avoid a financial collapse.        

            The U.S. has a different problem: our national debt, which has now topped $23 trillion. And it’s getting worse. The problem is that Washington doesn’t seem to care. President Trump and Congress agree to budgets or continuing resolutions that add over $1 trillion to the debt each year, while aspiring presidential contenders like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders advance vote-buying proposals for free stuff that would cost many trillions more without any conceivable way of paying for them. We’ve enjoyed low interest rates and low inflation for a long time. What happens when that trend is reversed and we face interest on our debt that exceeds our gross national product?       

            The biggest mistake Harry Reid made while Senate Majority Leader was to eliminate the filibuster in the appointment of federal judges. In his three years in office, President Trump has successfully appointed 48 circuit court appellate judges, and 122 district court trial judges, a record that far surpasses that of his predecessors for the same period. As federal judges serve for life, this is bound to have a long-lasting effect on our nation’s judiciary. Thanks, Harry.      

            According to analysts with the Heritage Foundation, tax increases and reductions in private spending for health insurance and medical care required to pay for Medicare for All would result in an average reduction $5,670 in a family’s annual disposable income. It would be worse for households getting employer-paid health benefits: their annual disposable income would drop by an average of $10,554. Are you paying attention, Elizabeth?      

            A recent survey shows that the number of Americans who say they do not follow any religion has grown from 16% to 35% in the last ten years. For people aged 18 to 29 that no-religion number is now 44%. Often cited by dropouts is their opposition to inflexible religious teachings on sexuality and social issues; they would encourage churches to have conversations with people who have different experiences and points of view, rather than to require passive adherence to a fixed set of authoritative positions. Open Door USA reports in its World Watch List 2019 that 4,135 Christians were killed for their faith last year in places like Nigeria, Syria, Iran, and North Korea. I doubt these martyrs were looking for a conversation on social issues when they faced death.

On Ears

            I find ears fascinating.  They come in all sizes and shapes.  Elephants have huge ones, hounds floppy ones, birds tiny ones.  Even humans sport an interesting variety.  Some have long lobes, others none at all.  Some people have ears that stick out (like a taxi with its doors open, as the saying goes).  I’ve even known a man who could flap either one at will.  And then there’s the question we seniors all ask ourselves: why do our ears grow bigger as we age, while our other body parts shrink?

            I read somewhere that in colonial times some criminals had their ears nailed to a post as punishment.  I leave it to the reader to imagine how they freed themselves from such a predicament.  Think Van Gogh.

            Ear piercings have been around a long time.  Otzi the Iceman, who lived 5,000 years ago, had pierced ears.  So did Egyptian mummies.  And just about every civilization has pierced ears for decorative purposes.  Ours is no exception.  Claire’s, an ear-piercing service, holds the Guiness Book of Records for having pierced 85 million ears. That’s a lot of punctures.

            It used to be that women only pierced earlobes, but now they can go for the rook, helix, tragus, conch, daith, and auricle (we all know what they are, right?), as well as elaborate combinations.  Creativity is all the rage.

            Traditionally, and with rare exceptions like pirates, only women in this country wore earrings.  Until now.  Grown men as well as boys now sport studs and rings.  Some even try to outdo each other with gauging, the placing of ever-larger “gauges” in the ear lobe.  One of my grandsons tried gauging.  I’m glad he stopped before the point-of-no return, where the holes become permanent and disfiguring.

            For me, ears are meant to be functional, not decorative.  Unfortunately, my right ear has pretty much ceased to function as designed.  My wife insists I should go for a hearing aid, but I refuse.  There’s a certain advantage to being deaf in one ear.  I can “turn a deaf ear” to criticism, pretend I didn’t hear a question I prefer not to answer, or plead ignorance of requests to do something I’d rather not do. 

            Fortunately, my wife, who sits in the shotgun seat when I drive, has learned to scream quite audibly when I’m about to run a red light or cross in front of oncoming traffic.  Thank goodness I still have one good ear.

Presidential Abuse

          It is becoming increasingly clear that President Trump will be impeached. Irrespective of its merits, the president’s impeachment will most certainly divide this nation even further. Hard-core adherents on the left and right will not change their votes, but serious-minded independents will be forced to take sides when the 2020 elections come around. No matter who is their nominee, Democrats will not persuade the electorate on a platform of destructive leftist policies or promises of a better economy (Trump has already won this argument). Democrats will have no choice but to put all their chips on a single number at the political roulette table: the fitness of Donald Trump to serve another term. The odds are not great, but they are getting better all the time. If Donald Trump continues launching insults at every real and imagined opponent, a majority of Americans may very well decide they’ve had enough of his abusive behavior.

            A case in point is Trump’s treatment of career diplomats. A president needs ambassadors who will implement his policies abroad and he has the perfect right to replace them when they don’t. When the president got word that Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch did not agree with his attempt to force Ukraine to investigate corruption involving the Bidens, he removed her. That was his right. But when she testified at the impeachment hearings on this point, Trump did not even wait until the end of her testimony to vilify her. His tweet was nasty, mean, and profoundly disrespectful of a woman with a distinguished and selfless career in some of the most remote outposts in the world. Kyrgystan, anyone?

          Self-confidence is an essential quality in a president. But so is a modicum of humility. To be effective, a president must rely on his experience and judgment to make sound decisions; but, a president must also recognize that he is not infallible or omniscient, and that he must rely on the advice of others who may not always agree with him. From what we’ve witnessed in the White House’s revolving door, the president is seriously lacking in this respect. Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly, and Bolton are just four superbly qualified people no longer advising Trump because he lacked the humility to accept their sometimes contrary opinions. Even in the face of near-universal disagreement, as in the case of his abandonment of the Kurds in northern Syria, President Trump cannot accept even the possibility that he could have been wrong.

            With his record of accomplishment, Donald Trump should be a shoo-in next November. But if he persists in his intemperate behavior, he will make many of those independent voters ask themselves if it’s time for a president with a bit less hubris and a bit more humility. Even, heaven help us, a Democrat.

On Shopping

            Thanksgiving will soon be a warm memory giving way to the frenzy of Black Friday, the official start of the Christmas shopping season. But not for me.

            I hate shopping.  I’m the kind of guy who goes into a store, finds what he wants and buys it, all in the least amount of time. Not my wife. For her, shopping is an adventure, an avocation, a pleasure-filled investigation of all the possibilities a well-stocked store has to offer. Time is irrelevant. Inspect, touch, compare, check the price, check the tag, move on, return for a second look. That and more goes into my wife’s shopping ritual. 

            If shopping were a religion, my wife would be its High Priestess. There are commandments to be obeyed, like never take the bottle of milk in front, only the one behind it. Buy a product made in China only as a last resort and an absolute necessity. Keep the little bag of coupons with you at all times…you never know. Don’t pass by the book section without checking to see what’s new. Stop and pay your respects to the clearance rack. Drive that extra ten miles for a nickel off a gallon. Never pay full price if you can help it. And don’t ever come home with only the things on your shopping list.

            My wife is well aware of my aversion to shopping. She never asks me to follow along.  “Stay in the car. I’ll be right out.” Uh, huh.  Or, “Sit over there and wait for me.” That’s when I get to meet other husbands on the same bench who have never quite understood why patience has evolved into a uniquely male virtue. 

            On occasion, though, I get the benefit of my wife’s shopping idiosyncrasies.   Take greeting cards, for instance.  Sometime I think my wife single-handedly keeps greeting card companies in business.  Every birthday, every anniversary, every special occasion.  Kids, grandkids, relatives near and far, good friends, they all get a card.  Don’t even mention Christmas.  And not just any card. The selection must be the result of an exhaustive search for just the right sentiment.  But I must say that my wife saves the best ones for me.

            On my last birthday, my wife’s card said, “Every time I look at you, I know I chose the best man in the entire world to spend all the days of my life with.” Now, that wasn’t just any card. I don’t know how long it took her to find this one, but the words hit me; they were perfect (even if this stodgy grammarian noticed the preposition at the end of the sentence). Me. The guy who forgets to do the dishes.  The guy who picks on her for buying too many vitamin pills. The guy who yells at her for tailgating. The guy who is not as affectionate as he should be.  

            Why me?  Lucky me.

A Vote for Nikki Haley

            A year ago, I was in Georgia visiting my sister Louise and her husband Dick, a conservative like me who also takes a great interest in national politics. We happened to be talking about the future of the Republican Party when I asked Dick to write down the name of the one person he would choose to lead the party in the next presidential election should Donald Trump choose not to run. I did the same. And when we compared notes, we saw that we had written the same name: Nikki Haley. And that was months after she had stepped down from the national stage. It may well be her time to return to it.

            Nikki Haley served three terms in South Carolina’s legislature, followed by two very successful terms as the state’s governor. When Donald Trump was elected President, he chose her to be his first Ambassador to the United Nations. She represented our country in that post for two years and did a superb job as an advocate for Trump’s international policies, especially as a staunch defender of Israel. That’s a pretty good resume.

            She also has a very good personal profile. She is married and the mother of a boy and a girl—the ideal family, some would say. As the daughter of Indian immigrants, she says of herself that she is not white enough to be white nor black enough to be black, a sort of a claim of immunity to charges of racism from either side.

            So, how does a woman with such impeccable Republican credentials make her re-entry onto the national stage? She writes a book. Before it even hit the bookstores, “With All Due Respect” catapulted her onto the front pages of the national media whose pundits on the left lost no time in attacking her. Her crime? Loyalty to the president. It seems that when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chief of Staff John Kelley had tried to recruit her in opposing some of the president’s policies, she refused.

            We don’t know how this soap opera will play out. Some are already saying Haley is positioning herself for a presidential run in 2024, or perhaps as a replacement for Mike Pence as Trump’s running mate in 2020. Whatever the outcome, my brother-in-law and I will be proven to have been incredibly prescient or in need of a new crystal ball.

           

           

Big Money

            World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg finally rewarded the Washington Nationals for their faith in picking him first in the 2009 draft and sticking with him through one injury after another for ten years. They even gave him a contract that would have paid him $25 million a year for the next four years. Not good enough for Mr. Strasburg: he is opting out of his contract in favor of free agency that will bring him even greater riches. So much for loyalty.

            Strasburg’s greed is not unusual in big-time sports where the mantra seems to be “Get it while you can.” Even college athletes are on the verge of cashing in, as their amateur status is sacrificed to Mammon.

            Sports do not provide the only arenas for amassing great wealth. There are 2,754 billionaires in the world at last count. Silicon Valley seems to be sprouting them faster than asparagus. And so does Wall Street.

            What do billionaires do with all their money? Bill Gates chooses to fund many charitable causes through his foundation. But hedge-fund founder Ken Griffin opted to spend $238 million of his money on a Manhattan penthouse. Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg plunked down $130 million for his family sanctuary on 700 acres of beachfront property in Kawaii. But he is not alone in his lust for property: there have been 20 residential properties in the United States that have each sold for over $100 million. Just how big of a house do billionaires need?

            Elizabeth Warren must have asked herself this question when she proposed to tax the excess wealth of billionaires to fund her multiple plans for free stuff. Of course, even if she managed to confiscate all American billionaires’ money, it wouldn’t pay for half of the $20.5 trillion needed to cover just the cost of her public health plan, aka Medicare for All.

            The senator from Massachusetts wants to be President of the United States. As a practiced liar she knows she can’t win by telling the truth, so she is relying on the gullibility and ignorance of mostly young voters who swallow her promises of free stuff. After all, she has a plan to get all those billionaires to finally pay their fair share.

            Mr. Strasburg, don’t count your money just yet.

           

On California Fires

            It is impossible to ignore the images of homes ablaze in all those horrendous California fires.  We are now looking at vast swaths of California real estate that have become virtually uninhabitable—why would you want to build a house in one of those fire-prone areas? Chances are you wouldn’t be able to buy fire insurance. Insurers have had to pay out so many claims in the last couple of years that they no longer write new policies in those areas; in fact, many are cancelling existing policies. Not a good job market for insurance agents. Or real estate agents for that matter.

            What is responsible for all those fires anyway? There has been a lot of finger-pointing going on California. It’s climate change, say radical environmentalists, because it is responsible for the high winds and severe droughts. But don’t environmentalists themselves bear some responsibility for California’s failed forest management strategies regarding such matters as fire breaks and clearing of underbrush? When high winds cause a tree to fall on a power line and start a fire, shouldn’t we be asking why a tree was growing so close to the power line in the first place?