Entitlements

            Remember the days when we were told that the greatest long-term threat to the world was overpopulation? We don't hear that very much these days. The opposite is true in many countries that now view shrinking populations as a serious problem.             

            The population replacement rate is the number of children that need to be born to keep the population number steady. That number is 2.1, that is, an average of 2.1 births per woman. It used to be much higher, but with advances in medicine and child care, infant mortality, an important factor, is much lower now. But look at the replacement rate in these countries: Germany 1.36, Japan 1.4, China 1.54. The lowest rate of all is in Singapore: 1.1. In the U.S. the overall rate is 1.93. It's higher than the others mainly because of the higher birth rate in the Hispanic community; the rate among white, educated women is 1.6!
            What does this mean for us in practical terms? It means we have an aging population that is supported by fewer and fewer young people. For example, there are not enough workers paying payroll taxes to cover seniors on Social Security. And it's getting worse now that the Baby Boomers are retiring. That's why analysts are saying that Social Security and Medicare will soon bankrupt this country if nothing is done to rein in their costs. Yet, too many of our solons in Washington view these two programs as sacred cows.
            With our national debt growing at a rate of more than a trillion dollars a year, spending is seriously out of control. There are many ways to reduce spending, but no programs cry out louder for reform that Social Security and Medicare. Some proposals for reform have come from forward-looking thinkers like Paul Ryan, and even the President's own Simpson-Bowles Commission has pointed to the need to reduce entitlements. Sadly, all of them have been ignored or fiercely opposed by the Administration and Senate Democrats.
            Even the voters are leery of any changes. The future beneficiaries of government largesse don't seem to worry much about the burden they will be passing on to their children and grandchildren. They insist on their turn at the government trough. This is the entitlement mentality that has become so pervasive in this country. It's the nanny state gone wild.
            The citizens of this country need to be dragged kicking and screaming into the realm of reality. People are living longer and working longer. So why are we stuck on 65 as the magic number for retirement? Why are we not means-testing the beneficiaries? Why are we not coming up with reforms that put young people in charge of their future security instead of relying on a broken system administered by an incompetent government?
            I read recently that law school applications are down almost 50% from what they were ten years ago. I guess that's good news if it means we can look to a future with fewer lawyers, considering just about everyone in Congress is a lawyer.
            But we'll save this discussion for another day.