A Pig in a Poke

            Russia is annexing Crimea, and some of our prominent politicians are saying, “Let ‘em have it.”  Well, I’m beginning to think that maybe they’re right.   International law violations aside, the question becomes, “Is Russia buying a pig in the poke?”

            Russia has coveted Crimea ever since it transferred it to Ukraine in 1954.  With Murmansk iced-in half the year, there’s no doubt Russia could use a warm water port with access to the Mediterranean and the Atlantic.  But is it worth the price?

            First, Crimea is not self-sustaining.  Until now, 40% of its economy has come from Ukraine in the form of subsidies.  This is about to come to a screeching halt.  Russia will have to pick up the tab.

            Second, one of Crimea’s prime sources of income is tourism, 60% of it from Ukraine whose sun worshipers have flocked to Crimea’s Black Sea beaches in the summer.  This also will end with annexation.

            Third, Crimea’s water, electricity, and most of its food comes from Ukraine across a narrow strip of land that will become an international border once Russian annexation is complete.  If Russia can cut Ukraine off from Russian natural gas, Ukraine can cut the Crimean peninsula off from food, water, and electricity.  Tit for tat.

            Third, Russians have no land access to Crimea.  To get there by land they must cross Ukrainian territory, something Ukraine will not easily permit.  The alternative is to build a three-mile bridge across the Kerch Strait.  Russia built such a bridge in 1944 after it liberated Crimea from Germany.  But the bridge collapsed only two years later because of ice.  A new bridge would take three and a half years to build at a cost of $3.5 billion.  That would no doubt put a big dent in Russia’s already shaky economy.  Russian sunbathers will have to wait.

            Another way to solve the access problem is for Russia to annex Ukraine’s eastern provinces, again under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians.  Ukraine is not going to permit that without a fight.  So now we await Russia’s next move.